Telecom Turbulence

Nigeria’s telecom market is proving too fierce for 9mobile. Data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) shows the country’s smallest telecom by subscriber base, 9mobile, has seen its market share shrink to just 1.9% (3.2 million subscribers)—its lowest ever. While the telecom’s market share dipped, its subscriber base stayed flat, showing that other telecoms grew their active user base.

Yet, this decline didn’t happen overnight. The telecom has been losing market share over the years. In 2015, 9mobile held 15.7% of the market with 23.4 million users. By 2022, that number had dropped to 12.8 million. In September 2024, an NCC regulatory audit further slashed its market share to 2%. Now, at 1.9%, it’s losing ground fast.

9mobile is losing subscribers to its competitors. Over the past year, over 7,000 9mobile subscribers have ported to other network providers due to 9mobile's poor internet service; the issues have persisted for two years due to its inferior broadband infrastructure reach compared to other telecoms.

As of September 2024, 9mobile's download speed as an internet service provider (ISP) stands at 17.82 megabytes per second (Mb/s), which is nowhere near the level of other telecoms and ISPs in Ookla’s recent H2 2024 report.

Beyond its history of loan defaults, debts, and ownership changes, 9mobile is struggling to attract high-value users. Once a bold disruptor targeting young Nigerians, it has failed to keep up with rising tech demands and remote work trends in the country, which have seen tech workers demanding faster internet.

Deolu Ogunbanjo, president of the National Association of Telecommunications Subscribers (NATCOMS), believes 9mobile can only recover if it secures fresh capital. Its new owner, Light House Telecom, which acquired a 95% stake for $750 million in July 2024, is yet to invest in infrastructure or marketing to make the telecom competitive again—or show any intention of raising money.

Is history repeating itself? In 2018, Teleology acquired 9mobile but lacked the funds and strategy to revive it, leading to a failed attempt to raise capital. Will Light House Telecom follow the same path, or can it turn things around before it’s too late?

Dive deeper into our definitive reporting of 9mobile growth and decline to understand where it stands in the competitive Nigerian telecom market.

The challenges facing 9mobile are not isolated—they reflect a broader transformation sweeping Nigeria’s telecom sector. While 9mobile grapples with a steep decline in market share, industry-wide regulatory measures are prompting a significant recalibration in subscriber numbers. 

In 2024 alone, Nigeria lost 24.6 million internet users as the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) enforced stricter SIM verification and redefined what qualifies as an active subscriber. These sweeping changes are not only exposing weaknesses in struggling networks like 9mobile but also streamlining the sector toward a more sustainable, revenue-focused future.

At the heart of these reforms was a drive to eliminate inflated subscriber figures. Telecom operators were required to deactivate SIM cards linked to unverified National Identity Numbers (NINs), while the NCC tightened its criteria by counting only those users actively engaging in revenue-generating activities—whether it be purchasing data, airtime, or making calls. Such measures were designed to reveal a truer picture of user engagement in an industry that remains one of Nigeria’s largest contributors to GDP.

The impact of these regulatory actions was immediately evident. Between December 2023 and December 2024, the number of internet users dropped sharply from 163.8 million to 139.2 million. Similarly, active phone connections fell by 26.6%, from 224.7 million to 164.9 million. 

Despite this contraction in subscriber numbers, there was a notable surge in mobile data consumption, which climbed from 713,200 terabytes to 973,445 terabytes. Meanwhile, advancements in network infrastructure are shifting consumer preferences—4G adoption now surpasses 2G, with 4G accounting for 42.7% of usage.

In this recalibrated market, the story of 9mobile—a network already beleaguered by declining market share and service quality—takes on even greater significance. With its subscriber base stagnating and its market share shrinking to just 1.9%, 9mobile’s struggles are emblematic of the sector-wide purge of underperforming operators. Conversely, major players like MTN (51.4%), Airtel (34.3%), and Glo (12.2%) continue to build their active user bases, underscoring a competitive shift toward quality service and revenue-generating engagements.

As the telecom industry refines its focus on genuine customer engagement, the evolving landscape is expected to drive higher average revenue per user (ARPU) and pave the way for more robust, sustainable growth. The consolidation of subscriber data reflects a broader commitment to quality over quantity—a commitment that could spell long-term benefits for both consumers and operators willing to invest in superior network performance.

Kenya’s inflation rate remained comfortably below the central bank’s 5% target for the eighth consecutive month in December, setting the stage for another potential interest rate cut next week.

In December 2024, inflation ticked up slightly to 3.3% from 3%, driven largely by rising food and transport costs. Food prices, which account for about a third of the inflation basket, surged 6.1% compared to 4.8% previously. However, relief might be on the horizon: the government is gearing up to distribute 5.6 million bags of subsidized fertilizer before the rainy season in March, a move designed to boost corn yields and help rein in food prices.

The stable inflation figures are also bolstering the Kenya Bankers Association’s (KBA) campaign for lower interest rates. The KBA argues that reduced rates would stimulate credit growth and address challenges such as rising non-performing loans. In December alone, 23 banks trimmed their lending rates, bringing the average down from 17.22% to 16.89%.

With inflation remaining subdued, the shilling steady, and consumer demand still weak, the Central Bank is well-positioned to implement a fourth consecutive rate cut on February 5. This follows the December decision to lower the benchmark rate by 75 basis points to 11.25%.